Scenario Update Applied to Causal Reasoning
نویسنده
چکیده
In this paper, we propose to define the update of a scenario (sequence of observations at different time points) by a piece of information (value of a fluent or event occurrence) at a given time point. This operation computes the possible world evolutions (called trajectories) satisfying this piece of information that are the most in accordance with the initial scenario. It enables us to identify the consequences that a modification may involve on the evolution of the world. Updating scenarios allows us to define formally the counter-factual aspect of causation: to check if an event is a cause in a given scenario amounts to update this scenario by the non-occurrence of this event.
منابع مشابه
Formalizing correct evidential reasoning with arguments, scenarios and probabilities
Artificial intelligence research on reasoning with criminal evidence in terms of arguments, hypothetical scenarios, and probabilities inspired the approach in this paper. That research showed that Bayesian Networks can be used for modeling arguments and structured hypotheses. Also well-known issues with Bayesian Network were encountered: More numbers are needed than are available, and there is ...
متن کاملConstraints , Causal Rules and Minimal
We consider knowledge base update while the domain constraints are explicitly taken into account. We argue that the traditional constraint form is problematic to capture the causality of the domain, and ignoring this point may lead to diiculties in knowledge base updates. To handle this problem properly, it is necessary to describe the causal rules of the domain explicitly in the update formali...
متن کاملB2DI - A Bayesian BDI Agent Model with Causal Belief Updating based on MSBN
In this paper, we introduce B2DI model that extends BDI model to perform Bayesian inference under uncertainty. For scalability and flexibility purposes, Multiply Sectioned Bayesian Network (MSBN) technology has been selected and adapted to BDI agent reasoning. A belief update mechanism has been defined for agents, whose belief models are connected by public shared beliefs, and the certainty of ...
متن کاملReal-Time intrusion detection alert correlation and attack scenario extraction based on the prerequisite consequence approach
Alert correlation systems attempt to discover the relations among alerts produced by one or more intrusion detection systems to determine the attack scenarios and their main motivations. In this paper a new IDS alert correlation method is proposed that can be used to detect attack scenarios in real-time. The proposed method is based on a causal approach due to the strength of causal methods in ...
متن کاملThe Role of Causal Models in Reasoning Under Uncertainty
Numerous studies of how people reason with statistical data suggest that human judgment often fails to approximate rational probabilistic (Bayesian) inference. We argue that a major source of error in these experiments may be misunderstanding causal structure. Most laboratory studies demonstrating probabilistic reasoning deficits fail to explain the causal relationships behind the statistics pr...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2008